aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com · 2023-09-11 · 997d

Musings on Markets: How Streaming Disrupts Entertainment Business Economics

Streaming has fundamentally disrupted the movie and broadcasting industries by shifting content distribution, altering financial economics, and forcing companies to choose between competing business models—from the Netflix shotgun approach to HBO's curation strategy—with profound implications for profitability, talent compensation, and competitive dynamics similar to the music industry's earlier disruption. The article analyzes how streaming has compressed operating margins across entertainment companies from 15%+ pre-COVID to below 5% in 2022-2023, while redistributing market value away from legacy studios toward Netflix and Live Nation, presenting three possible futures ranging from revenue collapse to market expansion.

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Metrics in this report

Average Movie Production Cost

54.5millions USD

current

United States 2013-2023 (vs. $39.5M in 2000-2012)

Cable/Satellite TV Subscriber Loss

20%percent

historical

United States households 2015-2021 cord-cutting rate

Content Production Volume

1200movies per year

current

United States movie production 2013-2023 (vs. 367/year in 2000-2012)

Disney Expected Operating Margin

16percent

target

Author's valuation assumption for Disney years 1-5

Disney Operating Margin (LTM)

8.8percent

current

Disney LTM operating margin September 2023

Music Industry Top 1% Share

90percent

current

Share of music streams captured by top 1% of musicians

Netflix Annual Return

24.5percent

annualized

Stock performance 2013-September 2023

Netflix Expected Operating Margin

20percent

target

Author's valuation assumption for Netflix years 1-5

Netflix Market Cap Gain

174billions USD

cumulative

Market capitalization increase 2013-September 2023

Netflix Operating Margin (LTM)

17.32percent

current

Netflix LTM operating margin September 2023

Operating Margin

15%percent

historical

Movie industry pre-COVID baseline (2000-2019)

Operating Margin

5%percent

current

Movie industry 2022-2023 post-streaming disruption

Revenue Decline

40%percent

historical

Music industry aggregate revenues 2000-2016 following streaming disruption

Streaming vs. Cable Viewership

50%percent

current

Nielsen August 2022 first time streaming exceeded cable + broadcast TV viewing

Theater-Produced Movies

75movies per year

current

United States 2013-2023 (30% decline from 108/year in 2000-2012)