Country Risk: A July 2023 Update
This article provides a comprehensive framework for assessing country risk across multiple dimensions including democracy, violence, corruption, and legal protection, then translates these into measurable equity risk premiums for use in company valuation and investment hurdle rates. The author argues that companies should assess risk based on operational exposure (where they produce and sell) rather than incorporation jurisdiction, and provides detailed guidance on currency treatment and risk premium calculation across 180+ countries.
Metrics in this report
13.50%percent
IMF estimate for 2023-28 period
14.38%percent
Egyptian pounds, derived from USD T-bond rate and inflation differential
1.42ratio
S&P Emerging BMI to iShares JPM USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF, July 2023
8.33%percent
Based on sovereign rating Baa3 and default spread of 2.35%, July 2023
5.00%percent
S&P 500, July 2023
3.80%percent
Risk-free rate benchmark, July 2023