Musings on Markets: Tell Me a Story! (Facebook/Meta Narrative Analysis)
The article argues that effective valuation requires bridging business narratives with quantitative analysis, using Facebook's Metaverse investment as a case study. Damodaran demonstrates how Facebook's compelling advertising story drove its rise to $1 trillion market cap but has unraveled due to privacy pressures and saturating growth, forcing a narrative reset. He contends that Facebook must articulate a clear business model for the Metaverse—backed by specific financial projections and investment milestones—to rebuild investor trust.
Metrics in this report
5billion USD
Estimated loss on Amazon's Alexa division in 2021 (unsuccessful large-scale investment outcome)
1hours
Average daily time spent on Facebook platform (2019, highest among major social media)
19.2billion USD
Google's cloud business revenue in 2021 (successful large-scale investment outcome)
100billion USD
Facebook's market cap at IPO in 2012
1000billion USD
Facebook's market cap at peak in July 2021
247billion USD
Facebook's market cap on October 29, 2022 (below doomsday valuation scenario)
311billion USD
Facebook's market cap on November 15, 2022 (modest recovery from October lows)
60percent
Online advertising as percentage of total advertising in 2020 (up from <10% in 2005)
40percent
Facebook's operating margin from 2012-2021 (peak period of advertising dominance)
20percent
Facebook's operating margin in last twelve months (2022, depressed by Metaverse spending)
10billion USD
Assumed annual loss on Metaverse business in doomsday valuation scenario
32billion USD
Facebook R&D spend in last twelve months (2022)
118billion USD
Facebook annual revenue in 2021
3.6billion USD
Facebook annual revenue in 2011 (baseline for decade-long growth analysis)
3billion
Facebook ecosystem users (including Instagram and WhatsApp)