aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com · 2022-11-15 · 1297d

Musings on Markets: Tell Me a Story! (Facebook/Meta Narrative Analysis)

The article argues that effective valuation requires bridging business narratives with quantitative analysis, using Facebook's Metaverse investment as a case study. Damodaran demonstrates how Facebook's compelling advertising story drove its rise to $1 trillion market cap but has unraveled due to privacy pressures and saturating growth, forcing a narrative reset. He contends that Facebook must articulate a clear business model for the Metaverse—backed by specific financial projections and investment milestones—to rebuild investor trust.

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Metrics in this report

Alexa Division Loss

5billion USD

Estimated loss on Amazon's Alexa division in 2021 (unsuccessful large-scale investment outcome)

Daily User Engagement

1hours

Average daily time spent on Facebook platform (2019, highest among major social media)

Google Cloud Revenue

19.2billion USD

Google's cloud business revenue in 2021 (successful large-scale investment outcome)

Market Capitalization

100billion USD

Facebook's market cap at IPO in 2012

Market Capitalization

1000billion USD

Facebook's market cap at peak in July 2021

Market Capitalization

247billion USD

Facebook's market cap on October 29, 2022 (below doomsday valuation scenario)

Market Capitalization

311billion USD

Facebook's market cap on November 15, 2022 (modest recovery from October lows)

Online Advertising Market Share

60percent

Online advertising as percentage of total advertising in 2020 (up from <10% in 2005)

Operating Margin

40percent

Facebook's operating margin from 2012-2021 (peak period of advertising dominance)

Operating Margin

20percent

Facebook's operating margin in last twelve months (2022, depressed by Metaverse spending)

Reality Labs Annual Loss

10billion USD

Assumed annual loss on Metaverse business in doomsday valuation scenario

Research & Development Spending

32billion USD

Facebook R&D spend in last twelve months (2022)

Revenue

118billion USD

Facebook annual revenue in 2021

Revenue

3.6billion USD

Facebook annual revenue in 2011 (baseline for decade-long growth analysis)

User Base

3billion

Facebook ecosystem users (including Instagram and WhatsApp)