US Equities: Resilient Force or Case Study in Denial?
The article analyzes whether US equity markets are in a bubble by systematically evaluating four bubble arguments (valuation mean reversion, elevated PE ratios, concentration in FAANG stocks, and central bank manipulation) alongside their counterarguments. The author concludes that equity markets are fairly priced based on an implied equity risk premium of 5.55%, arguing that stock price appreciation has been justified by earnings growth and low interest rates, and adopts a market-neutral stance focused on individual stock valuation rather than market timing.
Metrics in this report
5.55%percent
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S&P 500 as of October 1, 2019
2.0%percent
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End of 1999 (market overpricing signal)
6.5%percent
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Start of 2009 (market underpricing signal)
75th percentilepercentile
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S&P 500 as of October 1, 2019, compared to 50-year historical distribution
3.15trillion USD
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Share of total S&P 500 market cap increase over last decade, representing one-sixth of total increase