tomtunguz.com · 2015-11-09 · 3860d

2015 Software Startup IPOs and M&A - What Does the Data Imply for 2016?

The article analyzes 2015 software M&A and IPO activity, finding a 40% decline in disclosed M&A values and minimal IPO activity compared to 2014, driven by a 200% valuation premium in private markets (10-15x forward revenue) versus public markets (5.3x). The author forecasts that private valuations will realign with public multiples in 2016, triggering a wave of acquisitions and IPOs, particularly for companies demonstrating growth combined with a path to profitability.

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Metrics in this report

Forward Revenue Multiple (Private SaaS)

10-15x

Private software companies in 2015

Forward Revenue Multiple (Public SaaS)

5.3x

Publicly traded software companies as of November 2015

Forward Revenue Multiple (Public SaaS)

8.1x

Publicly traded software companies at beginning of 2014

Median Software M&A Deal Size

410million USD

median

Software acquisitions in 2015

Median Software M&A Deal Size

193million USD

median

Software acquisitions in 2014

SaaS IPO Performance

17percent

median

Median SaaS IPO price appreciation from IPO price (2014-2015 period)

SaaS IPO Performance

35percent

average

Average SaaS IPO performance above last private round post-money valuation