tomtunguz.com · 2015-11-09 · 3860d

2015 Software Startup IPOs and M&A - What Does the Data Imply for 2016?

This article analyzes 2015 software exit market activity, revealing a significant decline in both IPO and M&A transactions compared to 2014, driven by a valuation divergence between private markets (10-15x forward revenue) and public markets (5.3x forward revenue). The author predicts 2016 will see increased acquisition activity as private valuations normalize toward public multiples, and successful IPOs will require both strong growth and a demonstrated path to profitability.

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Metrics in this report

Average IPO Raise

$105million

average

Software IPOs in 2014

Forward Revenue Multiple (Private SaaS)

10-15x

Private software/SaaS companies in 2015

Forward Revenue Multiple (Public SaaS)

5.3x

Public software/SaaS companies as of Nov 2015

Forward Revenue Multiple (Public SaaS)

8.1x

Public software/SaaS companies at beginning of 2014

Growth-Multiple Correlation

0.43correlation coefficient

Growth rate to forward multiple correlation, as of Q3 2015

Growth-Multiple Correlation

0.3correlation coefficient

Growth rate to forward multiple correlation, two quarters prior

IPO Count

13companies

Software companies going public in 2014

IPO Count

1companies

Software companies going public in 2015 through November

Median Acquisition Size

$410million

median

Software M&A in 2015

Median Acquisition Size

$193million

median

Software M&A in 2014

Median SaaS IPO Return

17percent

median

SaaS companies from IPO price appreciation

Median SaaS IPO Return

35percent

median

SaaS companies from last round post-money valuation